People were expecting a recession in 2023, as was I. But I’ve been predicting a recession ever since 2021. I was right temporarily and nailed a trade so I got confident, too confident. I learned some valuable lessons in the past few years.
Unfortunately for the bears, the strip clubs (a leading indicator for a recession) are still popular as of my most recent data collected over last spring break in Vegas. Although this is outdated data, I ignored this obvious fact when making my stupid bet along with the rest of Wall Street.
Regardless, the image above struck me as very alarming. Of course I can’t be confident of the source but I can be confident ‘enough’ about it coming from Bloomberg I guess. I will say: I have been hearing the term ‘soft-landing’ quite a lot recently. As they say, “what goes up, must come down”.
Below are trends often affiliated with recessions that I’ve found through researching past ones and trying to realize what is especially applicable to today.
Resume applications:
everyone needs money so they want to apply to more jobs. A resume automation ai would be good, also labor intensive fields should boom.
- Low end products:
People will soon care about price more than product quality by a lot.
- Cheaper labor:
People like my sister are graduating college with master degrees but no one wants to hire anymore. This means there’s a higher supply of quality labor at a cheaper price
- Cost Plus Drugs:
Retirement savings must be running out, leading old people to downgrade to cheaper drugs that still solve their problem.
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More Bank Failures
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More Lay-Offs
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Debt becomes more of an issue
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Less spending through a number of factors, but mostly a higher number of people saving will lead to less economic growth.